New Delhi: Lately, unseasonal rains have disrupted the pace of life, causing the situation to remain precarious. From North India to the southern states and even the northeastern regions, the rains are adversely affecting not only farmers’ crops but also the general public’s lives. There is now speculation that India’s Southwest Monsoon for the year 2026 is expected to be weaker compared to previous years.
According to the Meteorological Department, an alert has been issued indicating that this year’s monsoon is likely to be “below normal.” As per the agency, rainfall during the period from June to September is expected to reach approximately 94 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA).
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Possibility of a Weak Monsoon
According to Jatin Singh, Managing Director of Skymet, the active La Niña conditions that have prevailed over the past year and a half are now likely coming to an end. The Pacific Ocean appears to be transitioning toward an “ENSO-neutral” state. The report further indicates that the El Niño phenomenon is expected to develop during the initial phase of the monsoon season.
Furthermore, an alert has been issued suggesting that this phenomenon could intensify during the latter half of the season. Consequently, there are indications that the monsoon may weaken due to the influence of El Niño. Irregularities in the distribution of rainfall may also be observed.
Monthly Rainfall Outlook
According to Skymet, distinct forecasts have been presented for each of the four monsoon months. Regarding the month of June, the onset of the monsoon is expected to be favourable. There is a possibility of rainfall reaching 101 per cent of the LPA in June, which is considered normal. However, starting from July, a decline in monsoon activity may be observed.
In July, rainfall is projected to be around 95 per cent of the LPA. Subsequently, during August, rainfall levels could drop further to approximately 92 per cent. September is considered the final month of the monsoon season; for this month, rainfall is projected to be limited to just 8 per cent of the LPA.
States Likely to be Affected
According to Skymet, a deficit in rainfall may be observed across the central and northwestern regions of the country. Meanwhile, an alert has been issued warning of significantly lower-than-normal rainfall—particularly in Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan—during the months of August and September. Conversely, the eastern and northeastern parts of the country are expected to experience better rainfall compared to the rest of India.
Key Highlights of the Forecast
Total rainfall during this monsoon season is projected to reach approximately 868.6 mm. Skymet has warned that a percentage of the country could face drought-like conditions. Furthermore, the probability of receiving normal rainfall stands at a mere percentage. The Indian Ocean Dipole is expected to remain in a neutral phase; consequently, there are indications that the onset of the monsoon will be favourable.
