This is a rare event when on one hand the rupee is strengthening against the dollar in the currency market, and on the other hand the prices of crude oil are softening in the international market. On Friday, the rupee strengthened by five paise against the dollar and closed at 85.25. At the same time, the prices of Brent crude, which is the standard of the crude oil market, recorded the biggest decline in the last three years on Friday. It fell by 3.26 percent to $ 67.87 per barrel. In such a situation, the common man has started hoping for relief in the prices of petrol and diesel. So will the oil prices come down now? Let’s know!
If the conditions were normal, then there would be relief
If it were normal times, then the oil companies would definitely give the gift of reduction in the retail prices of petrol and diesel to the general public. But at present there is little hope of this. Top officials of the Finance Ministry say that there is a need to be cautious in view of the global environment created after the retaliatory tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. They believe that economic uncertainty remains at the international level, so it may be risky to reduce retail prices immediately.
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Remember the last cut
The last time the retail prices of petrol and diesel in India were reduced by Rs 2 per liter was in March 2024, before the last general elections. The figures of the Petroleum Ministry itself show that except for June 2024 and September 2024, India has purchased crude oil in the international market at cheaper rates than in March 2024.
The average purchase cost of crude oil for India in March 2024 was $ 82.58 per barrel, while in the first three days of April, it was $ 75.76 per barrel. A report by Care Edge Rating Agency shows that India’s average crude oil purchase price was $85.21 per barrel in the first quarter of 2024-25, $78.80 per barrel in the second quarter, and $73.83 per barrel in the third quarter. It is clear from these figures that crude oil prices have come down from before.
Will petrol and diesel prices decrease now
Six months ago this agency had estimated the price of crude oil to be $75-80, now the prices have come down even below the estimates of special research agencies. Some international agencies have even said that it can go down even further.
The reason for this is that America is also increasing the production of crude oil and the Organization of Petroleum Producing Countries (OPEC) has also decided to increase production. On the one hand, there is a situation of increase in production, on the other hand, there is a possibility of a decrease in demand. Due to these factors, there is pressure on crude oil prices.
Why are crude oil prices falling
The SBI report says that the decision to impose retaliatory taxes could increase the inflation level in the US by 2.2 percent. The growth rate of global exports, which was 2.9 percent in the year 2024-25, could come down to 1.3 percent in the year 2025-26.
This points to a recession. Crude oil prices are probably coming down due to this fear. Due to the possibility of a slowdown in the global economy, there may be a decrease in energy demand, which will increase the pressure on oil prices.
You will get the benefit of the strength of the rupee
Many times in the past, when crude oil has become expensive, oil companies have defended themselves by saying that the dollar is getting expensive. Since oil companies pay for imported crude oil in dollars, and when the dollar is expensive, they have to pay more rupees than they have in their account.
But at present such is not the situation. In February 2025, at one point the price of the dollar had reached 88.10. People were speculating that it would soon cross the 100 mark. But in the last few trading days, the rupee has strengthened continuously, so this old excuse of oil companies will no longer work.
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