Monsoon Update: The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted that the southwest monsoon may arrive in Kerala by May 27, four days ahead of its usual June 1 onset. If this holds true, it will mark the earliest monsoon arrival since 2009, when it hit the Kerala coast on May 23.

Impact on Bihar: Will Rains Come Sooner?

  • Expected Arrival in Bihar: Between June 13-15 (as per IMD projections).

  • Last Year’s Delay: Monsoon reached Bihar on June 20 (5 days late), resulting in 20% below-normal rainfall.

  • 2023 Scenario: Despite arriving a day early (June 12), Bihar saw 23% less rainfall than average.

  • Long-Term Trend: Since 2021, Bihar has not recorded above-average monsoon rainfall. The state’s normal monsoon rainfall stands at 1,272.5 mm.

Key Factors Influencing Monsoon 2024

  • Weather Patterns: If favorable monsoonal currents develop, Bihar could receive above-normal rainfall.

  • IMD’s Official Forecast: A detailed monsoon outlook will be released on May 15, confirming Kerala and Bihar’s monsoon timelines.

Historical Monsoon Arrival in Kerala

  • 2023: June 8

  • 2022: May 29

  • 2021: June 3

  • 2020: June 1

  • 2019: June 8

  • 2018: May 29

Expert Insight: No Direct Link Between Early Onset & Overall Rainfall

An IMD official clarified that early monsoon arrival in Kerala does not guarantee timely or excess rains in other states. Monsoon progression depends on global, regional, and local weather conditions, making predictions variable.

Final Outlook

While an early monsoon onset raises hopes for better rainfall in Bihar, actual rainfall distribution will only be clear post-arrival. Farmers and policymakers should await IMD’s May 15 update for precise forecasts.