8th Pay Commission: The 7th Pay Commission wraps up its 10-year term on December 31, 2025. So, everyone’s looking ahead to the 8th Pay Commission—when it will kick off and how much salaries will go up. The government has already laid out its Terms of Reference (ToR). Justice Ranjan Desai is leading the commission, and they’ve started their work. But, we still don’t know the official start date. Some estimates are saying that the recommendations might roll out in early 2028 instead of January 2026.

Arrears will increase if implemented late

The government has given the green light to the 8th Pay Commission, and its ToRs are all set. The Commission has 18 months to get its report ready. Based on what we’ve seen before, the government usually takes about 3-6 months to review and approve the report once it’s in. So, we’re probably looking at implementation by late 2027 or early 2028.

If the 8th Pay Commission’s recommendations are delayed and backdated to January 1, 2026, employees might end up with some hefty arrears. This delay could also mean some extra cash benefits for the employees.

How much can the salary increase?

Many market experts, including Ambit Capital, estimate that the 8th Pay Commission could result in a 30-34% increase in salaries and pensions for central government employees. This increase will be based on the fitment factor, the multiplier used to determine the new basic pay. Reports suggest that the new fitment factor could be between 1.83 and 2.46, with most estimates focusing on 2.28. It is normal for DA to be merged into the basic pay before the new pay fixation.

If an employee’s current basic pay is Rs 18,000, their gross salary, including DA, is approximately Rs 35,000. If a 34% increase occurs, the new gross salary will be approximately Rs 46,900 per month. This translates to an increase of Rs 11,900 per month.

So how much arrears will you get?

If the recommendations of the 8th Pay Commission are implemented in January 2028 and are considered effective from January 2026, then the employees will get 24 months’ arrears.

Monthly increase: Rs 11,900
Duration: 24 months
Total arrears: Rs 2.85 lakh
This means that even an employee with the lowest basic pay could receive arrears of around Rs 2.8-3 lakh. At higher pay levels, this amount would be several times higher.