8th Pay Commission : December 31, 2025, is a key date for central government workers and pensioners since it’s when the 7th Pay Commission officially wraps up. This has raised hopes for the 8th Pay Commission. Back in October 2025, the central government gave the green light to the 8th Pay Commission’s terms of reference. They’ve got about 18 months, starting from November 2025, to hand in their recommendations on salaries, allowances, and pensions to the government.
According to government norms, January 1, 2026, can be seen as the “paper” effective date for the new pay structure. But that doesn’t mean employees will see their salaries hit their accounts right away. Experts point out that there’s usually a significant delay between the effective date and when the actual payments start. This was true for the 7th Pay Commission too.
The pay was deemed effective from January 2016, but it wasn’t until June that the Cabinet approved it, and only then did the new salaries and back pay start rolling out.So, how much of a salary bump can we expect?The big question now is what kind of salary hikes are on the horizon with the 8th Pay Commission. While we don’t have any official numbers yet, people are making estimates based on past commissions.
The 6th Pay Commission had an average increase of 40%, while the 7th Pay Commission saw an increase of around 23–25%, with a fitment factor of 2.57. Early estimates for the 8th Pay Commission suggest a salary increase between 20% and 35%. The fitment factor is anticipated to be in the range of 2.4 to 3.0, which could really help out lower-level employees.
However, the final decision will depend on several factors: inflation levels in the coming months, the government’s financial situation, tax revenue, and political balance. Experts believe the government will attempt to provide a “feel-good” increase, but will carefully consider changes to allowances and DA. For now, it’s believed that January 2026 will be the reference date only, while the actual salary increase and arrears will likely be received in 2026-27. So, be hopeful, but be prepared to wait a bit.