Good news for India’s common people. Cooking price may are going to decrease soon. Edible oil prices are expected to drop in the April-June period since China has slapped an extra 10% tariff on top of the existing 25% import duty for soya bean imports from the US. This has caused global soya oil prices to fall by $50 per tonne in just three days, and it’s also affecting other oils like sunflower and palm oil, which have seen price declines as well.
Sandeep Bajoria, CEO of Sunvin Group in Mumbai, pointed out that while India doesn’t import a lot of soya bean oil from the US, the news from China has created a negative vibe in the market, leading to a drop in prices across the board for edible oils.
With the higher import duty, US soya bean exports to China are likely to decrease, increasing the availability of soya beans globally. This is putting downward pressure on soya bean oil prices, which have fallen from $1,150 per tonne to $1,100 per tonne in just three days.
In the same timeframe, sunflower oil prices have dropped from $1,190 per tonne to $1,150 per tonne, and palm oil has decreased from $1,240 per tonne to $1,200 per tonne.
Angshu Mallick, managing director of Adani Wilmar, mentioned that edible oil prices will likely ease in the April-June quarter as lower-priced imports are expected to arrive by the third week of March and hit the market in April. He doesn’t foresee prices rising in the first quarter of 2025-26, predicting that they will stabilize at lower levels.
Industry leaders predict that oil prices will drop by about 4% in April compared to current rates. Bajoria mentioned, “We anticipate a decrease of Rs 4 per kg.”
He also suggested that imported oil prices could decline further in the upcoming weeks. Right now, a kilogram of soya bean oil is priced between Rs 150 and Rs 155.
India relies on imports for over 65% of its edible oil needs, with the import bill reaching $15.9 billion for the 2023-24 period.
The US ranks as the second-largest producer and exporter of soya beans, following Brazil, with soya beans accounting for more than 90% of its oilseed output.
According to estimates from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the US is expected to produce 118.83 million soya beans in the 2024-25 season, marking a 10.1% increase from the previous year.
India consumes around 22-23 million tonnes of edible oils each year, importing approximately 14.5-15 million tonnes to satisfy domestic demand. This includes 9 million tonnes of palm oil and 2.5-3 million tonnes each of soybean and sunflower oils.
Mallick noted that mustard oil production in India is expected to be robust, which should help keep edible oil prices in check. He added, “Any rise in edible oil prices would likely be due to a global knee-jerk reaction.”