Railway Confirm Ticket: You are right, the problem of waiting tickets increases especially during festivals or busy seasons, when the demand for trains is high and the number of seats is limited. However, determining the probability of confirmation of a waiting list ticket depends on many factors.
The main factors affecting the probability of confirmation of a waiting ticket are:
1. Size of the total waiting list: As you mentioned, sometimes the waiting list can reach up to 500, then the probability of confirmation decreases. But if the size of the waiting list is small, the probability increases.
2. Capacity of the train: How many seats are vacant in the train is also very important. For example, if the total seats of the train are more and the waiting list is small, then the probability of the ticket getting confirmed is high.
3. Passenger cancellations: If a passenger cancels his ticket, the number of vacant seats may increase and this may also increase the chances of confirmation of a waitlisted ticket.
4. Nearing time: As the date of train journey approaches, the number of tickets cancelled by passengers may increase, which may increase the chances of confirmation.
5. Number of confirmed tickets: If a lot of passengers are already confirmed, the chances of confirmation of a waiting ticket may decrease as the number of seats left may decrease.
What can be expected?
Usually, a waiting ticket can get confirmed for numbers up to 100, but for numbers above 200 or more, the chances may be very low, especially during peak seasons.
1. Track the ticket: You can track the status of your waiting ticket from the Indian Railways website or app.
2. Choose Press Waitlist (PQWL) or RLWL: If you apply for these tickets, the chances of confirmation may be slightly higher as these tickets are booked across different zones of the railways.
3. Enquire at the railway counter: Enquiring at the railway counter can give you a better idea about the confirmation status of the ticket before the journey.
The confirmation chances of a waiting ticket always vary, but if you book early and the waiting list is less, your chances of getting confirmed may be higher.
It is always challenging to accurately estimate the chances of a waiting ticket getting confirmed as many factors affect it, such as the train route, timings, and weather conditions of travel. However, Indian Railways has given some statistics and patterns from which we can estimate the chances of a waiting ticket getting confirmed.
Data released by Indian Railways:
Indian Railways has prepared a general pattern of confirmation chances based on different waiting list categories.
If your ticket is in RAC, it means you did not get a seat reserved in advance but you have been allowed to travel. In this case, the chances of confirmation are very high, as most passengers have a chance to cancel the ticket at the last minute. Usually 90-95% of RAC tickets get confirmed.
If your waiting list is between 1 to 50, the chances of confirmation are high, especially if the travel is not in season. In this case, the chances of confirmation can be around 70-80%.
If your waiting list is between 51 to 150, the chances of confirmation are low, but it is completely possible, especially if the number of cancelled tickets is high. In this situation, the possibility of confirmation can be up to 50-60%.