The last month of the year started today, Sunday, but in the stock market, it will begin tomorrow, Monday. In the final week of November, on the 29th, the Indian stock market saw a rise of about 1 per cent. How the market performs in the upcoming week will depend on several key factors. Among these, the RBI policy meeting, PMI data, and crude oil prices will play a significant role. Let’s take a closer look at these factors.
No Change Expected in Repo Rate
In the upcoming RBI policy meeting, the last Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of 2024, experts do not anticipate any change in the repo rate. Although the economy showed slow growth in the September quarter, inflation rose to 6.21% in October, significantly higher than the RBI’s target of 4%. Analysts predict a possible interest rate cut in the February or April 2025 meeting. During this meeting, the RBI is expected to discuss its inflation target and measures for ensuring economic stability.
PMI Data to Be Closely Watched
Globally, U.S. economic data will take centre stage for investors. This includes key metrics such as monthly factory orders, vehicle sales, unemployment rates, and JOLTS job openings. Speeches by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and other officials could also provide valuable insights. These data points will be critical in shaping decisions for the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on December 19. Additionally, November’s manufacturing and services PMI data from major economies like the U.S., Europe, China, and Japan will also be closely monitored.
Oil Prices and Market Trends
Oil prices fell last week, driven by expectations of easing tensions in the Middle East. Brent crude futures dropped by 3.82%, settling at $72.3 per barrel. Experts believe this is a positive sign for Indian equity markets. Additionally, the expectation of increased supply from the International Energy Agency (IEA) in 2025 could apply downward pressure on oil prices. Volatility in oil prices may continue in the coming week.
Domestic Economic Data and FII Flow
Key economic data will be closely watched in India, including the HSBC Manufacturing PMI (December 2) and Services PMI (December 4). Preliminary estimates suggest the Manufacturing PMI may dip to 57.3 in November, while the Services PMI is expected to rise to 59.2. Market participants will also monitor Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) activity. Last week, FIIs made net sales of over Rs 5,000 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) purchased shares worth Rs 6,925 crore.
IPO Buzz
This week, three new IPOs are set to launch:
- Property Share Investment Trust (December 2)
- Nisus Finance Services (December 4)
- Emerald Tyre Manufacturers (December 5)
Additionally, shares of several companies, including Rajesh Power Services, C2C Advanced Systems, and Rajputana Biodiesel, will be listed on the SME platform. These factors will shape the mood of the stock market in the first week of December.
Avijit Das
A sports journalist driven by passion and dedication, I seamlessly blend my love for writing and sports. Currently with Timesbull, I have honed my craft at Sportskeeda, Cricreads, and Athlete Fortune. I live and breathe sports—whether it's football, cricket, cards, or chess, I'm always up for a challenge. A die-hard...
