DA Hike Before Holi 2026? Last 5-Year Trend Hints at Increase for Central Govt Employees

DA Hike: Speculation is growing about a dearness allowance increase for central government employees before Holi 2026. However, a five-year trend analysis shows that changes to the January-June DA are typically announced after Holi, except for 2024. Currently, the DA is 58%, and the implementation of the 8th Pay Commission is still some time away, so employees may have to wait a little longer for the next increase.

Speculation is once again rife that the central government may announce a hike in dearness allowance (DA) for central government employees and pensioners for January-June 2026 before Holi. However, a look at the past five years’ pattern suggests that announcements before Holi are not common—especially when the festival falls in early March. Following the announcement of a 3% hike on October 1, 2025, for the July-December cycle, central government employees and pensioners currently receive a 58% DA.

The upcoming revision will be the first DA hike outside the 7th Pay Commission, which formally ended on December 31, 2025. Employees and pensioners across all central government departments are expected to receive a 2% DA increase in the next revision. This will increase DA from 58% to 60% of the basic salary, effective January 1, 2026.

Something like this pattern is visible

The July-December DA hike has mostly been announced before Diwali since 2021.

The January-June DA hike has generally happened after Holi, especially when Holi falls in the first half of March.

The only major exception was 2024, when the March DA was announced on March 7, well before Holi on March 25.

In 2025, Holi was on March 14, but the DA hike happened almost two weeks later on March 28.

This suggests that expectations of a DA hike before Holi in 2026 may not match recent trends.

Why does the timing of Holi matter?

The idea that the DA is linked to Holi stems from the government’s practice of announcing two changes each year—one around March and the other around October/November. While the second increase has often coincided with Diwali in recent years, the March announcement hasn’t always been made before Holi. When Holi falls early in March, the Cabinet decision typically comes later in the month. Therefore, unless there’s some unusual rush in the decision-making process, an announcement after Holi is more likely.

First DA hike after 7th Pay Commission

The upcoming DA revision for January-June 2026 is significant as it will be the first increase after the 7th Pay Commission’s term ended. The 8th Pay Commission has begun work and is expected to submit its report around March-April next year. However, even after submission, implementation may take a significant amount of time. Based on past experience, central government employees and pensioners may have to wait until late 2027 or early 2028 to see actual salary revisions under the 8th Pay Commission. Until then, DA revisions will provide some relief against inflation.

Demand to merge DA with basic pay

Amid this delay, employee unions and the National Council-JCM (NC-JCM) are demanding that the current DA, now at 58 percent, be merged with basic pay. They argue that since the next pay commission will be implemented some time away, merging DA with basic pay will provide structural relief and help reset the inflation adjustment base. However, there has been no official indication from the government that such a move is currently being considered.

What should employees expect?

The DA hike for January-June 2026 will be determined by changes in the All India Consumer Price Index (AICPI) data. The final percentage increase will depend on inflation trends in previous months. While festive anticipation always generates excitement, five-year data shows that Holi does not always determine the March DA announcement. For now, central government employees and pensioners may have to wait for the Cabinet decision and possibly Holi before clarity emerges on the next DA hike.